Experts are scrutinizing claims of famine in Gaza, citing insufficient mortality data and declining food prices, raising questions about the accuracy of the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification’s assessments.
As humanitarian aid continues to flow into Gaza following a ceasefire agreement, experts are challenging the claims made by the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) regarding the existence of famine conditions in the region. David Adesnik, vice president of research at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, has raised concerns about the validity of the IPC’s assertions and the agency’s organizational ties.
According to Adesnik, the IPC defines famine as a situation where two lives are lost per day for every 10,000 people. Based on this definition, he argues that the reported famine in Gaza should have resulted in approximately 9,000 deaths from hunger or hunger-related diseases by now. However, he notes that there is no data to support that such a mortality rate has been reached.
On August 22, the IPC indicated that famine was occurring in one Gaza governorate and projected that it would extend to two additional governorates by September 30. In contrast, the Hamas-run Gaza Ministry of Health reported that 273 Palestinians had died from famine and malnutrition over nearly two years of conflict. By October 7, this figure had risen to 460, a difference of 187 deaths. Adesnik emphasized the need for evidence to support claims of famine, stating, “An accusation of famine is supposed to rest on evidence.”
Furthermore, Adesnik pointed out that the IPC had forecasted a significant worsening of the food security situation, which he expected would lead to a substantial increase in food prices. Contrary to this prediction, the World Food Programme’s Palestine Market Monitor revealed that prices for 60 of 89 key food and non-food items in three Gazan governorates remained stable or even declined between late August and mid-September.
In light of these discrepancies, Fox News Digital reached out to the IPC, the World Food Programme (WFP), the U.N. Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), and the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) to inquire whether they believe there is famine in Gaza based on the available data. While OCHA and FAO deferred to the IPC for comment, the IPC did not respond.
Concerns have also been raised regarding potential bias in the IPC’s famine predictions. The IPC does not disclose the non-governmental organizations, government institutions, and U.N. agencies that comprise its governance structure. These entities also provide personnel who support the funding and implementation of IPC initiatives at the country level. The IPC’s lack of transparency regarding its affiliations has led to questions about the reliability of its assessments.
In recent months, U.N. agencies and international NGOs have faced scrutiny over allegations of alignment with Hamas. Eri Kaneko, a spokesperson for OCHA, stated that the agency does not participate in IPC Technical Working Groups. However, the FAO clarified that during crises, the IPC coordinates global analyses with technical experts from various partner organizations, including FAO, WFP, UNICEF, and OCHA.
The U.N.’s food distribution model has also come under fire due to the severity of looting from both armed and unarmed actors. According to the United Nations Office for Project Services (UNOPS), 80.5% of U.N. trucks have been intercepted since May 19. Adesnik criticized this distribution method, stating, “That can’t possibly be the fairest way to distribute aid.” He suggested that the strongest individuals often claim their share of aid, which contradicts the intended purpose of humanitarian assistance.
Kaneko acknowledged that aid interception is a serious concern and emphasized the need for a more effective distribution model. She noted that the U.N. plan for scaling operations focuses on resuming community-based and household-level distributions to ensure that aid reaches the most vulnerable populations. For the plan to succeed, she stressed the importance of open crossings, safe movement for civilians and aid workers, unrestricted entry of goods, and a revival of the private sector.
Since the ceasefire began, OCHA has reported a possible reduction in the rate of aid interception. As of October 17, UNOPS indicated that slightly more than 75% of items shipped into Gaza have successfully reached their destinations since May.
Adesnik also raised concerns about changes in OCHA’s Humanitarian Situation Reports, which previously detailed the number of aid seekers who perished near distribution sites. He noted that reports indicated more aid seekers died near U.N. convoy sites than near Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF) distribution sites. Following this revelation, OCHA omitted the number of deaths from its reports, leading Adesnik to question whether the agency was attempting to suppress unfavorable data.
Kaneko explained that the omission was temporary and that data on deaths around convoys and distributions is typically provided by two sources. If no new data is received from either source by the time an update is finalized, figures from that source may only appear in subsequent updates.
Since beginning aid deliveries in May, the U.S.-backed Gaza Humanitarian Foundation has provided over 185 million free meals to Palestinians. Some have suggested that GHF could serve as a replacement or complement to the U.N. and NGO systems. A GHF spokesperson stated that the organization is open to adapting to U.N.-established norms and has offered to assist in delivering aid securely into Gaza.
Adding to the confusion surrounding hunger in Gaza, UNRWA Commissioner-General Philippe Lazzarini recently stated that his agency has sufficient food supplies to provide for the entire population for the next three months. In response, Adesnik questioned the effectiveness of U.N. aid distribution, noting that despite thousands of trucks being sent into Gaza, a significant portion has been looted. He argued that if the U.N. had coordinated with Israel on security, aid could have been delivered more effectively to those in need.
The ongoing debate surrounding the claims of famine in Gaza highlights the complexities of humanitarian aid distribution and the challenges faced by organizations working in conflict zones. As the situation continues to evolve, the need for accurate data and transparent reporting remains critical.
Source: Original article