Even before the dramatic Oval Office confrontation between President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, relations between the U.S. and Europe were growing increasingly strained.
Following Friday’s diplomatic breakdown between Trump, Zelenskyy, and Vice President JD Vance, the future of the trans-Atlantic alliance, which has endured for eight decades, appears uncertain.
In a striking rebuke to Trump, European leaders expressed their unwavering support for Zelenskyy. Trump had accused Zelenskyy of being “disrespectful” and “gambling with World War III” by continuing Ukraine’s resistance against Russia’s invasion.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen praised Zelenskyy’s resolve, posting on X, “Zelenskyy’s dignity honors the bravery of the Ukrainian people. Be strong, be brave, be fearless. You are never alone, dear President Zelenskyy. We will continue working with you for a just and lasting peace.”
Germany’s likely next leader, Friedrich Merz, reaffirmed his stance, emphasizing that “we must never confuse aggressor and victim in this terrible war.” French President Emmanuel Macron also voiced strong support, stressing the importance of respecting the Ukrainians “fighting for their dignity, their independence, for their children and for the security of Europe.”
Perhaps the most striking statement came from European Union foreign minister Kaja Kallas, who asserted, “Today it became clear that the free world needs a new leader. It’s up to us, Europeans, to take this challenge.”
However, not everyone sided against Trump. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban characterized the tense Oval Office meeting as “difficult” but commended Trump, saying he “stood bravely for peace.” Meanwhile, some observers argued that Zelenskyy escalated tensions unnecessarily by publicly challenging a far more powerful negotiating partner upon whom Ukraine heavily depends.
For Zelenskyy’s supporters, these European leaders’ strong backing reflects a belief that Ukraine’s struggle is not just a localized war but part of a broader hybrid conflict. They contend that Russia’s aggression extends beyond the battlefield, encompassing cyberattacks on Western democracies. They fear that granting Moscow a symbolic victory in Ukraine could embolden further expansionist moves. This concern is heightened by accusations that Trump is undermining the alliance by pressuring U.S. allies while fostering closer ties with Russian President Vladimir Putin, who is widely regarded in Europe as a war criminal.
This growing unease explains why U.S.-Europe relations were fraying even before the recent diplomatic debacle. Over the past several weeks, there have been increasing indications that European powers are seeking greater autonomy from their long-standing reliance on Washington.
Following his center-right Christian Democratic Union party’s victory in Germany’s elections, Merz signaled a shift in priorities. “My absolute priority will be to strengthen Europe as quickly as possible so that, step by step, we can really achieve independence from the U.S.,” he declared. He also questioned whether NATO’s upcoming June summit would maintain the alliance in its current form or require the rapid establishment of an independent European defense structure.
His remarks were particularly striking, given his traditionally pro-American stance. They suggested not only a willingness to boost defense spending—something Trump has long demanded—but also a desire for Europe to chart its own course. “I never thought I would have to say such a thing on a television program,” he admitted.
Yet, many questions remain about what this European military independence would entail. Would it require Europe to match U.S. defense spending within NATO? Leaders like Macron and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer have expressed no desire to reduce cooperation with Washington. Alternatively, would the U.S. gradually withdraw from its European commitments altogether?
Regardless of the approach, the challenges are immense. The U.S. military’s deep integration into Europe means that its removal would leave critical gaps in air defense, military satellites, and cyber capabilities. Sven Biscop, a director at the Brussels-based Egmont Institute, warned that such a shift would create “huge holes” in European security infrastructure.
Since World War II, the U.S. has provided military protection to Europe in exchange for influence across the continent. Unraveling this interdependence would require hundreds of billions of dollars—costs that would likely fall on European taxpayers already struggling with a cost-of-living crisis and cuts to public services.
Last year, the European Union’s collective defense budget stood at $457 billion, far below the U.S. defense budget of $968 billion. Even Russia’s military spending, at $462 billion, surpassed that of the EU, despite Russia’s smaller economy. Since its invasion of Ukraine three years ago, Moscow has refocused its entire economy on military production.
Achieving full European military deterrence without U.S. support would take a minimum of five years, according to Luigi Scazzieri, assistant director at the London-based Centre for European Reform. “You can probably get something that fills a large part of the gap in two to three years—but only with a lot of urgency,” he added.
Despite these logistical hurdles, Merz’s statements reflect an acknowledgment that trans-Atlantic relations are entering a new phase. Sophia Besch, a senior Europe fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, noted that the Trump administration “no longer acknowledges shared community of values, shared interests, and puts forward a very ‘great power competition’ view of the world, where Europe is a side player and Russia is an equal.”
Merz is not alone in his call for European self-reliance. Macron has long advocated for Europe to reduce its dependence on Washington. In response to Merz’s remarks, Macron declared, “We are experiencing a historic moment. It can lead to an unprecedented Franco-German agreement.”
Biscop believes that European leaders must act swiftly to organize this shift in defense strategy. He suggested forming a European “war Cabinet” to coordinate efforts, potentially including leaders such as Britain’s Starmer, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte, and the EU’s von der Leyen.
“They need agility and they need to move fast,” Biscop urged. “Even faster on Ukraine—because the Americans and Russians are already negotiating.”
As tensions between Washington and Europe continue to rise, the question remains whether Europe can truly break free from its historical reliance on U.S. military and economic support. For now, leaders across the continent appear determined to chart a new course—one that may redefine the future of the trans-Atlantic alliance.