China’s new mega dam on the Tibetan Plateau has the potential to strenghten its economic influence over neighboring countries through electricity exports, while raising concerns about ecological impact and regional tensions.
China’s ambitious hydropower project on the Tibetan Plateau, the Yarlung Tsangpo dam, is set to become the world’s largest of its kind, generating an estimated 300 billion kilowatt-hours annually—three times that of the Three Gorges Dam. Analysts suggest that this massive project could draw nearby nations into China’s economic sphere by providing electricity and fostering economic growth.
According to state news agency Xinhua, the dam’s primary purpose will be to generate electricity for foreign consumption, though some of the power will serve local demands in Tibet. However, the initiative has led to concerns over its impact on water supplies and ecological risks in downstream areas such as India and Bangladesh, where the river is called the Brahmaputra. Despite these worries, Beijing assures that its intentions do not involve benefiting at the “expense of its neighbors.”
India has expressed apprehension about China’s increasing influence in South Asia, as the project might enhance China’s sway over power-hungry countries such as Nepal, Bhutan, Myanmar, and Bangladesh. Zhu Feng, dean of the school of international studies at Nanjing University, emphasized the project’s strategic significance in boosting electricity supplies and industrial growth across the region.
In addition to fulfilling power needs, the project aligns with Beijing’s aim of enhancing economic cooperation with its neighbors amidst its rivalry with the United States. Lin Minwang, deputy director of Fudan University’s Centre for South Asian Studies, noted that the long-term export of electricity could integrate Southeast and South Asian nations more closely into China’s economic orbit. While India might benefit from the dam’s power, Lin highlighted that border tensions could complicate matters, particularly since a transit route through India would be necessary to send electricity to Bangladesh.
India, in recent years, has been investing in its own hydropower projects in Nepal and Bhutan to safeguard energy supplies, raising questions about whether neighboring countries will turn to China or India for future power imports.
The dam will be situated near the India-China border, passing through Arunachal Pradesh—an Indian-controlled state that China claims as part of southern Tibet. Beijing has previously opposed India’s infrastructure projects in the area. Shi Yinhong, an international relations expert at Beijing’s Renmin University, mentioned that the project primarily serves China’s power needs, noting that the economic downturn and environmental impacts are additional concerns.
China has attempted to mitigate environmental concerns related to the project and its effects on downstream water supplies. The Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson, Guo Jiakun, stated that the dam aims to promote clean energy development with “comprehensive ecological and environmental protection measures.”
Shi added that while the project may increase tensions with India, it could also enhance China’s power diplomacy by drawing in some Southeast Asian Nations, thereby boosting China’s influence in the region.
Lu Gang, director of the Institute of International Studies at East China Normal University, explained that providing stable power supplies could “help shape a positive image of China” and build trust with other nations, potentially leading to greater economic dependency. Additionally, he suggested that the dam’s success could have strategic long-term impacts on regions like Central Asia, where countries like Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan possess significant hydropower resources but lack infrastructure.
According to South China Morning Post, the project may offer a model for economic stimulation if successfully implemented.