The opposition conservatives, led by Friedrich Merz, secured a modest victory in Germany’s election on Sunday, while the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) saw its support double, marking the strongest performance for an extreme-right party since World War II, according to projections.
Chancellor Olaf Scholz acknowledged defeat for his center-left Social Democrats, calling it “a bitter election result.” Projections from ARD and ZDF public television indicated that his party had finished in third place, marking its worst postwar performance in a national parliamentary election.
Merz expressed his intention to form a coalition government by Easter, though assembling such an alliance is expected to be challenging.
A Discontented Electorate
The election was held seven months ahead of schedule after Scholz’s unpopular coalition collapsed in November. His three-year tenure had been plagued by internal divisions, leading to widespread dissatisfaction among voters. However, there was little enthusiasm for any of the candidates.
Key concerns during the campaign included the prolonged economic stagnation in Europe’s largest economy and the pressure to control migration. Merz, in recent weeks, had strongly advocated for stricter immigration policies, fueling debate. Additionally, uncertainty surrounding Ukraine’s future and Europe’s alliance with the United States added to voter concerns.
As the most populous country in the European Union and a leading NATO member, Germany plays a crucial role in shaping Europe’s responses to global challenges. It has been the second-largest supplier of weapons to Ukraine, following the United States. The outcome of the election is expected to influence Germany’s stance on issues such as U.S. foreign policy under a potential new Trump administration.
According to projections based on exit polls and preliminary results, Merz’s Union bloc garnered around 28.5% of the vote, while the anti-immigration AfD received approximately 20.5%—nearly double its 2021 result.
Scholz’s Social Democrats managed just over 16%, significantly lower than their previous election performance and worse than their postwar low of 20.5% in 2017. The Greens, who had been part of the outgoing coalition government, secured about 12%.
Among the smaller parties, the hard-left Left Party showed resilience, making a comeback with up to 9% of the vote. The pro-business Free Democrats, also a part of the collapsed government, appeared poised to lose their parliamentary representation, with support hovering around 4.5%. Meanwhile, the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) was on the brink of the 5% threshold required to enter parliament.
Merz Faces Tough Road Ahead
The ability of Merz to form a coalition government depends on whether he can secure a majority with the Social Democrats or if a second partner, likely the Greens, will be necessary. The inclusion of the BSW in parliament could also influence coalition dynamics.
“The most important thing is to reestablish a viable government in Germany as quickly as possible,” Merz emphasized.
“I am aware of the responsibility,” he stated. “I am also aware of the scale of the task that now lies ahead of us. I approach it with the utmost respect, and I know that it will not be easy.”
Merz also warned that prolonged coalition negotiations would be detrimental. “The world out there isn’t waiting for us, and it isn’t waiting for long-drawn-out coalition talks and negotiations,” he told his cheering supporters.
Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck, the Greens’ candidate for chancellor, urged Merz to adopt a more moderate approach following an intense campaign.
“We have seen the center is weakened overall, and everyone should look at themselves and ask whether they didn’t contribute to that,” Habeck remarked. “Now he must see that he acts like a chancellor.”
Despite its role in Scholz’s unpopular administration, the Greens fared relatively well compared to their coalition partners. Matthias Miersch, the Social Democrats’ general secretary, admitted that their defeat had been long in the making. “This election wasn’t lost in the last eight weeks,” he observed.
A Triumphant Yet Isolated Far-Right Party
AfD co-leader Tino Chrupalla celebrated the party’s historic gains, addressing enthusiastic supporters. “We have achieved something historic today,” he declared.
“We are now the political center and we have left the fringes behind us,” Chrupalla asserted. AfD’sprevious best result was 12.6% in 2017 when it first entered parliament.
Alice Weidel, AfD’s candidate for chancellor, signaled the party’s openness to coalition talks with Merz’s conservatives. “We are open for coalition negotiations” with the Union, she said, adding, “Otherwise, no change of policy is possible in Germany.”
However, Merz and other mainstream leaders have consistently rejected working with AfD, and he reiterated this stance in a televised discussion with Weidel and other political leaders after the election.
Weidel suggested that AfD would not need to compromise much in any theoretical coalition, arguing that the Union had largely adopted its policies. She dismissed Merz’s victory as hollow, stating, “It won’t be able to implement it with left-wing parties.”
She predicted instability if Merz formed an alliance with the Social Democrats and the Greens. “It will be an unstable government that doesn’t last four years, there will be an interim Chancellor Friedrich Merz, and in the coming years, we will overtake the Union,” Weidel claimed.
Merz dismissed the possibility of a coalition with AfD, emphasizing that their policy positions were fundamentally at odds. “We have fundamentally different views, for example, on foreign policy, on security policy, in many other areas, regarding Europe, the euro, NATO,” he stated.
“You want the opposite of what we want, so there will be no cooperation,” he added.
Scholz also condemned AfD’s rising influence, asserting, “That must never be something that we will accept. I will not accept it and never will.”
The election saw more than 59 million eligible voters participate in choosing the 630 members of the Bundestag, Germany’s lower house of parliament, who will take their seats under the iconic glass dome of Berlin’s Reichstag building.