The Israel-Hamas war, often summarized through numbers and statistics, is a conflict deeply embedded in the daily lives of those caught in its midst. For the past ten months, the war has not only instilled a pervasive sense of insecurity but has also worsened the humanitarian crisis in Gaza, where famine, contaminated water, and diminishing resources have become everyday realities. Compounding these hardships is the looming threat of a broader regional conflict, particularly with Iran.
On Thursday, U.S. and Arab mediators are set to initiate new talks aimed at securing a cease-fire between Israel and Hamas. However, the assassination of key figures such as Hamas leader and negotiator Ismail Haniyeh and Hezbollah’s Fuad Shukr has dampened hopes for easing the conflict.
The statistics reveal a grim picture: since October 7, at least 39,929 Palestinians have been killed in Gaza, and 92,240 have been injured, according to the Gaza Ministry of Health. These deaths follow the October 7 Hamas attack, which claimed the lives of 1,200 people at a musical festival in Israel. In addition, approximately 250 hostages were taken by Hamas and other attackers, with 115 of those hostages still in Gaza, 41 of whom are believed to be dead. One Israeli citizen remains missing since October 7, according to the Israeli government.
Amid these developments, skepticism surrounds the possibility of a cease-fire. President Biden has repeatedly expressed confidence in the prospect of a cease-fire over the past several months, yet each effort has faltered. The question now is whether anything will be different this time.
NPR international correspondent Daniel Estrin suggests that a new sense of urgency among the mediators could lead to a different outcome. “They say there is a ticking clock here because they’re hoping that a Gaza cease-fire can dissuade Iran from its threat to attack Israel. They want to prevent a wider regional war through this Gaza cease-fire. And it really is a dramatic moment. You have this military buildup with the U.S. sending warships and combat jets to the region to fend off a possible attack. And at the same time, you also have this very dramatic diplomatic push. We have a senior Israeli delegation on its way to Qatar. The CIA chief is expected to be there, too.”
The basic framework of the cease-fire deal, which includes a hostage-prisoner exchange and the return of Palestinian civilians to North Gaza, has been on the table for months. However, unresolved issues remain. Estrin outlines the key questions: “How many Israeli hostages would be released in the first stage of this deal? What about Palestinian detainees? Who would be released in exchange? Will Israel get to screen Palestinians returning to North Gaza and prevent armed militants from going there, too? What about Israeli soldiers? Will they withdraw from the Gaza Egypt border? And then the biggest question is, will this be the end of the war, the actual permanent end of the war?”
Hamas is seeking a guarantee that the cease-fire will mark the end of the conflict, a goal shared by U.S. and Arab mediators. At the same time, Israel wants the option to resume combat if Hamas drags out the negotiations.
In the end, the success of any cease-fire agreement hinges on the desires of the leaders involved. Estrin notes, “It comes down to whether the leader of Israel and the leader of Hamas want it.” There is uncertainty about whether Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will ultimately agree to a cease-fire. “He has said all along that he is not succumbing to pressure to end the war. He’s standing up to his security chiefs. They’re all telling him that now is the time to strike a deal with Hamas. They want to shift focus to Iran and to Hezbollah. And then you have the far right in Netanyahu’s government. They actually want to prolong the campaign in Gaza against Hamas much longer.”
This campaign is part of a religious, ultranationalist ideology that envisions permanent Israeli dominion over Gaza, with some even dreaming of establishing Jewish settlements there. Although Netanyahu does not openly endorse these far-right ideologies, many analysts in Israel believe that delaying a cease-fire deal could serve his personal interests. A deal with Hamas could lead to new elections, potentially resulting in Netanyahu losing power or facing a national reckoning for what is considered the worst security failure in Israel’s history. As Estrin explains, “That’s something he wants to avoid as long as possible.”
The path to peace remains uncertain, with deep divisions among the key players and unresolved issues still on the negotiating table. The outcome of the new cease-fire talks, set against the backdrop of ongoing violence and regional tensions, is far from guaranteed.
