Census shows America’s post-2020 population is driven by diversity especially among the young

Last month, the Census Bureau released new data for geographic areas which provide a glimpse of how the nation’s population has been changing over the first third of the 2020s decade. It emphasizes that people of color are the main drivers of population growth for the nation as well as shifts across states, metropolitan areas and counties.

The 2020 census showed that the 2010s was the first decade in the nation’s history when the white population declined and the second consecutive decade when the white population under age 18 declined. The new census estimates for the period between April 2020 and July 2023 have made plain that both of these trends are continuing though the 2020s. This is leaving the growth of many areas reliant on the rise of members of other races and ethnic groups, especially among their youth. All of this reinforces my earlier view that the nation’s “diversity explosion” represents an important part of its future, a phenomenon that American policies and politics need to recognize.

National growth depends on minority groups, particularly Hispanic Americans

Census shows America’s post 2020 population is driven by diversity especially among the youngThe post-2020 period has been impacted by a pandemic, a decline and then an uptick in immigration, and shifts in both births and deaths—all of which has affected overall population gains and losses.

The national population changes by race, depicted in Figure 1, show that basic patterns that were evident in the 2010s still apply after 2020. Between April 2020 and July 2023, the nation’s white population declined by 2.1 million, a figure more than countered by the combined gains of people of color, including those identifying as Hispanic, Asian (including, here, Hawaiian and other Pacific Islander), Black, American Indian and Alaska Native (AIAN), and as two or more races.\

The Hispanic population contributed the most to these gains, accounting for 3.2 million, or 91% of the total U.S.net international migration and natural increase by race ethnicity population gain of 3.4 million for this three-plus year period. Within this period, the peak pandemic year of 2020–2021 showed smaller annual gains (or greater declines) for each group, but the gains picked up through 2022–2023 (see downloadable Table A).

When looking at the primary demographic components of change—net international migration and natural increase (births minus deaths)—it is clear that the white population’s negative natural increase (or natural decease) contributed the most to the white population’s decline, only partially offset by white net international migration. For all other groups, except the Asian population, natural increases contributed more than immigration. And on both demographic measures, Hispanic contributions were greater than those of any other group (see Figure 2).

People of color are most responsible for state population gains

Top News Census shows America’s post 2020 population is driven by diversity especially among the young (1)Minority populations fueled population growth across all parts of the U.S., especially in growing states. This is because white population decline is spread broadly across the nation. Over the 2020–2023 period, fully 34 states (a count that includes the District of Columbia) registered white population losses, with only 17 experiencing white gains (See downloadable Table B).

Map 1 shows that broad national picture: 17 states experienced white and total population growth (where minority gains generally outnumbered white gains), 19 states registered total gains despite white losses, and 15 states lost population size overall including substantial numbers of whites.

Thumbnail Census shows America’s post 2020 population is driven by diversity especially among the young (3)People of color contributed most, if not all, of the population gains in the fastest-growing states. This is depicted in Figure 3 for the five states with the greatest gains: Texas, Florida, North Carolina, Georgia, and Arizona. Although all of these states except Georgia received some white gains, the main contributions for each came from minority groups. Hispanic gains were substantial in each of these states, but in most, especially Texas, there were significant Black and Asian contributions. And in Georgia, a state with white losses, Black gains outnumbered those of the other minority groups.

A different story emerged among the states with the greatest population losses. Among these, white populations accounted for most of the declines. This trend is depicted in Figure 3 for the states that weathered the greatest population losses: New York, California, Illinois, Louisiana, and Pennsylvania. In each of these states, white losses dominated overall losses, though in New York there also were significant Black and Hispanic population losses. In contrast, minority gains in California and Pennsylvania were sizable enough to reduce overall population losses for those states.

In contrast to the pervasive white population losses across states, most other racial groups showed widespread population gains (see downloadable Table C). Both Hispanic and Asian populations registered gains in all states except one (New York and Hawaii, respectively), with Hispanic residents showing the greatest gains in the Sun Belt states of Texas, Florida, California, Arizona, and North Carolina. The states with the biggest Asian population gains were Texas, California, Washington, Florida, and Georgia. The Black populations grew in 37 states, led by Texas, Georgia, Florida, and North Carolina, with the greatest losses in New York, California, and Illinois. And the AIAN population showed small gains in 40 states.

Major metro areas reflect extremes: minority gains and white losses

Census shows America’s post 2020 population is driven by diversity especially among the youngJust as state population shifts highlight minority growth in the states with the greatest population gains and white losses in the states with the biggest population declines, this pattern is magnified among major metro areas—those with populations exceeding 1 million (see downloadable Table D).

Figure 4 depicts the five metros with the greatest population gains—the Texan trio of Dallas, Houston, and Austin along with Phoenix and Atlanta. In each of these metros, minorities made up the largest contributions to 2020–2023 population gains, with Houston and Atlanta experiencing white losses over this period.

The largest growth contributions in four of these metros came from the Hispanic population though substantial Black and Asian contributions occurred in Dallas and Houston. The outlier among these metros was Atlanta, where the Black contribution was biggest. Dallas, Atlanta, and Houston showed the largest gains among Black populations of all metros in 2020–2023. Dallas, Houston, Austin, and Atlanta were among the five metros that gained the most Asian residents, and Houston, Dallas, and Phoenix were in the top four for greatest gains in their Hispanic populations.

The five major metros with the greatest population declines included three Californian areas (Los Angeles, SanTop News Census shows America’s post 2020 population is driven by diversity especially among the young Francisco, and San Jose) as well as New York (the largest decliner) and Chicago. In each, white losses were by far the greatest, though in New York, Los Angeles, and San Francisco, there were sizable losses in the Hispanic and Black populations as well. Notably, these areas registered sharp overall population losses during the prime pandemic year of 2020–2021. Chicago also experienced a decline in its Black population, the second-largest drop after New York.

Map 2 provides an overview of growth and decline patterns for the 56 major metro areas, emphasizing the contribution of white population changes to overall population change. Among these 56 areas, 41 experienced white population losses during the 2020–2023 period. Overall, 15 metros gained both total and white populations, 22 registered total population gains despite white losses, and 19 sustained both total and white population losses. Among the 15 that gained both total and white populations (including areas such as Dallas, Phoenix, and Austin), the white contributions to these gains were far less than half in most of them.

White losses are most pervasive in Snow Belt and non-metropolitan counties

Top News Census shows America’s post 2020 population is driven by diversity especially among the young (2)The breadth of white population declines and widespread minority gains were also apparent across the nation’s 3,141 counties. Among these counties, 1,974 (63%) had white population losses in 2020–2023. The overall growth patterns are depicted in Map 3, which shows that 1,125 counties gained both total and white populations, 553 experienced total gains while seeing white population losses, and 1,421 counties weathered losses of their overall and white populations. (An additional 42 counties had white population gains but had overall population losses.)

percent of counties with total and white population losses 2020 2023

Table 1 provides a useful breakdown depicting the share of counties that lost population by region and metropolitan size. The shares of counties with white population losses were highest in the Northeast and Midwest regions (81% and 74%) and in non-metropolitan areas (68%). The share of counties with total population declines was lower in each region, especially in large metropolitan areas where only 26% of counties—mostly in urban cores—registered total population losses. Of the counties in large metros that experienced population gains, more than one-third also experienced white population losses. These counties contain some of the largest populations in the country. Thus, minorities have contributed substantially to large metropolitan population growth.

Minorities are essential for the growth of the youth population

Minority growth is especially vital for the nation’s youth under the age of 18. The white youth population has been declining nationally since 2000 and has continued to do so since the 2020 census. This is because proportionately fewer white women are in their prime childbearing ages, and fertility rates are lower among white than minority populations. Even with gains among some minority groups, the population decline in white youth has led to a total population loss in the nation’s youth.

post 2020 u s population change for age groups (1)post 2020 u s population change for age groups by race and ethnicity

 

The left panel of Figure 5 shows that the nation’s total youth population declined by 1.6 million in the three-plus years between the 2020 census and 2023, mostly due to the population loss of white youth. In comparison, the age group with greatest gains (over 5 million) were seniors (age 65 and above), due primarily to the continued aging of the largely white baby boomer population.

The continued decline of the nation’s youth population has contributed further to America’s overall aging. As was the case in the recent past, the white-dominated decline of this age group was mitigated somewhat by gains in some minority groups. As Figure 5 shows, the biggest gains in the youth population from 2020 to 2023 occurred for Hispanic and Asian youth as well youth identifying with two or more races. There were small population declines for Black and AIAN youth over this period.

Youth gains did occur in some states due mostly to the contributions of minority groups. Among the 50 states and the District of Columbia, just 12 showed youth population gains from 2020 to 2023, and only five of these exhibited white population gains as well. The remaining 39 states displayed both white and total youth population losses. While most of these showed minority youth gains, those gains did not outnumber white losses (see Map 4).

Top News Census shows America’s post 2020 population is driven by diversity especially among the young (1)
The states with the greatest youth population gains—Florida, Texas, South Carolina, North Carolina, and Tennessee—are all in the nation’s South region. In each of these states except Texas, Hispanic youth gains outnumbered all others, while population gains among Black youth predominated in the Lone Star State. The remaining seven states with overall youth population gains were in the West (Idaho and Montana), South (Oklahoma, Delaware, and Alabama), Midwest (South Dakota), and the District of Columbia (See downloadable Table E).

The states with the greatest youth population losses were California, New York, Illinois, Pennsylvania, and Michigan. Although white losses outnumbered those of all other groups in these states, each except Pennsylvania showed losses among their minority youth populations as well. California and New York registered youth declines among their Hispanic, Asian, Black, AIAN, and two-or-more race populations. Illinois and Michigan showed youth losses for each group except the latter. And in Pennsylvania, Black youth showed the largest minority declines.

Clearly, the decline of the white youth population is pervasive, both nationally and in all but five states. The Hispanic youth population was much more dispersed, registering gains in all but six states, while youth identifying as two or more races made gains in all but seven states, and Asian youth gained in all but 19 states. Each of these groups, together, continue to dominate national growth and represent the best hope of driving future growth in the nation’s young population.

Today’s diverse growth will lead to tomorrow’s multiracial America

The diversity of population gains, shown here for the post-2020 period, continues patterns observed in the past two decades when the nation’s white population began to slow and then eventually decline. Moreover, the transition is most important for the younger population, which experienced both overall and white losses. The overall losses would have been greater had it not been for minority population gains—especially in the Hispanic, two-or-more- races, and Asian populations. These groups are also benefitting from past and likely future immigration, though natural population increases (an excess of births over deaths among existing U.S. residents) are driving the bulk of gains among Hispanic residents and those of two or more races.

useful picture of where the country is heading draws from recent Census Bureau population projections, which assume continued white population losses overall and at most young ages, as well as a level of immigration consistent with the nation’s recent past (see Figure 6).

projected u s race ethnic profiles persons under age 18 projected u s race ethnic profiles total population

The projections show that Hispanic and other nonwhite groups will comprise 44 percent of the U.S. population in 2030, with Hispanic residents making up 21 percent. By 2050, these groups will make up more than half of the U.S. population with Hispanic residents comprising one-quarter of Americans. More importantly, the youth population, which is already “minority white,” will be 53 percent minorities in 2030 and 60 percent minorities in 2050, with the Hispanic shares of youth rising from 27 percent to 31 percent.

Immigration will certainly keep this aging nation growing and more diverse.  But even with lower levels of immigration, the U.S. population will become more racially diverse. As a result, the future of the nation’s labor force productivity and economic well-being will rely heavily on the success and integration of today’s and tomorrow’s increasingly multiracial younger population. Although the term “diversity” has become a politically divisive one in conversations about policies ranging from affirmative action to diversity, equity, and inclusion programs, the changing demographics evident in these census statistics underscore the need to make education, employment, and related opportunities available to young populations of all racial and ethnic groups.

Credit: Brooking.edu

U.S. Population Growth Has Nearly Flatlined, New Census Data Shows

America’s population size is standing still, according to new data from the U.S. Census Bureau. Population growth over the 12-month period from July 1, 2020 through July 1, 2021 stood at unprecedented low of just 0.12%. This is the lowest annual growth since the Bureau began collecting such statistics in 1900, and reflects how all components of population change—deaths, births, and immigration levels—were impacted during a period when the COVID-19 pandemic became most prevalent.[i]

The new estimates show that during this period, population growth declined from the previous year in 31 of 50 states as well as Washington, D.C., with 18 states sustaining absolute population losses. In some states, especially California and New York, population losses were exacerbated by inflated out-migration during the pandemic, just as other states such as Florida and Texas benefitted from greater population in-flows.

While COVID-19 clearly played a role in this near-zero population growth, that growth had begun to plummet even before the pandemic. The 2020 census showed that from 2010 to 2020, the U.S. registered the second-lowest decade growth in its history—a consequence, in large part, of the aging of its population, which led to more deaths and fewer births. Nonetheless, the new data shows that pandemic-related demographic forces have left an indelible mark on the nation.

Historic dips and spikes in population growth follow pandemics and economic trends

The unprecedented near cessation of U.S. population growth is depicted in Figure 1, which charts annual growth rates in the 121-year period from 1900 to 2021. Over this time, the nation experienced wide variations in growth, resulting from wars, economic booms and busts, as well as changing fertility and immigration patterns.

Noteworthy are the sharp dips in growth: in 1918-19, due largely to the Spanish Flu pandemic, and in the late 1920s and early 1930s as a result of the Great Depression. Growth rose to levels approaching 2% during the prosperous post-World War II “baby boom” years of the 1950s and 1960s. And after a lull in the 1970s and 1980s, population growth rose again in the 1990s due to rising immigration and millennial generation births.

The 21st century ushered in another population growth downturn, exacerbated by the 2007-09 Great Recession. This spilled into a 2010s decade-wide growth slowdown that provided a backdrop for the nearly flat growth of 0.12% in 2020-21. This most recent statistic reflects more deaths and fewer births associated with an aging population along with greater restrictions in immigration near the end of the decade, even before the pandemic hit.

The factors that led to today’s unprecedented flat growth rate

The demographic components of reduced population growth in 2020-21 are depicted in Figure 2, which contrasts year-by-year changes since 2000 in what demographers call “natural increase”—the excess of births over deaths as well as net international migration.

As indicted above, declines in the nation’s natural increase levels during the 2010s reflected more deaths associated with an aging population as well as the after-effects of the Great Recession in the postponement of childbearing for young adult women. Immigration trends were more uneven due to changing economic circumstances, including the recession and immediate post-recession downturn, as well as immigration policies that became more restrictive during the Trump administration.

Both natural increase and immigration contributions to population growth became markedly reduced in 2020-21, in large part due to the pandemic. (Pandemic impacts were partially evident already in 2019-20 data.) Population gains attributable to natural increase rose as high as 1.1 million in 2016-17, but dropped to 677,000 in 2019-20 and then again to 148,000 in 2020-21. Over the past two years, the number of deaths in the U.S. rose by 363,000 (from 3.07 million to 3.43 million) and the number of births declined by 166,000 (from 3.74 million to 3.58 million)—reflecting, in part, pandemic-related decisions to postpone having children.

Immigration levels plummeted as well, exacerbating the impacts of earlier policy restrictions. The new estimates showed a net international migration of just 256,000 in 2020-21—down from an already low 477,000 in 2019-20 and from over 1 million per year in the middle of the 2010s decade.

Despite this decline in immigration, it was the dip in natural increase—propelled by deaths during the pandemic—that drove much of the nation’s dramatic growth slowdown.  In contrast to earlier years, the contribution of natural increase to the nation’s growth was even less than that of immigration.

Eighteen states lost population in the past year

The national growth slowdown exerted a broad impact across the nation’s states. Among the nation’s 50 states and Washington, D.C., 31 showed lower growth (or greater losses) in 2020-21 than in 2019-20 (see downloadable Table B).

The states that led in growth rates were mostly in the Mountain West, including Idaho, Utah, Montana, and Arizona, which had annual rates exceeding 1.4%. In terms of numeric growth, the biggest gainers in 2020-21 were Texas (310,000 people), Florida (211,000), Arizona (98,000), and North Carolina (93,000). Still, these gains were smaller than what these states saw in 2019-20 or 2018-19.

Perhaps most noteworthy is the fact that 18 states (including Washington, D.C.) lost population in 2020-21. This is up from 16 population-losing states 2019-20; 14 in 2018-19; and just 10 in the two prior years.

New York and California registered the biggest numeric losses. Both states showed substantially greater losses in 2020-21 than in the prior two years, as was the case for most states that sustained recent population losses.

Twenty-five states registered more deaths than births

The poor growth performance of most states in 2020-21 reflects a combination of lower natural increase and smaller immigration from abroad—components which led to reduced national growth and reduced domestic migration across states (see downloadable Table C).

All 50 states and Washington, D.C. displayed lower natural increase in 2020-21 than in the previous year. Moreover, 25 states showed what demographers call “natural decrease”—an excess of deaths over births. Led by Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, and West Virginia, most of these states are in the nation’s Northeast, Midwest, and Southeast. Just eight of these states registered natural decreases in 2019-20; in 2018-19, this was the case for only four (West Virginia, Maine, New Hampshire, and Vermont).

Similarly, immigration from abroad was lower across all 50 states and Washington, D.C. in 2020-21 than in the previous year. This is especially the case for those with greatest immigrant gains: Florida, Texas, New York, and California.

Domestic migration sharpened state gains and losses

Domestic migration (movement within the U.S.) is the one demographic component which can either worsen or improve state population growth in a slow growth environment. This was especially the case during the past year, when pandemic-related economic, social, and safety factors prompted selective movement flows.

The new census estimates show how domestic migration impacted states which both lost and gained population. For example, the three states with the greatest overall population losses—New York, California, and Illinois—were the three leaders in net out-migration.    These states contain major cities and metropolitan areas, which have been associated with out-migration during the pandemic, and registered greater out-migration in 2020-21 than in each of the previous two years. It is also noteworthy that Washington, D.C. lost 23,000 domestic migrants—a huge outlier from earlier years, when the city experienced far smaller migration losses or gains (see downloadable Table C).

Similarly, states with the greatest overall population gains—Texas, Florida, and Arizona—were leaders in 2020-21 domestic in-migration. Just as most migrant-losing states shed greater numbers of migrants during the pandemic than earlier, it is the case that most migrant-gaining states (Arizona and Nevada were among the exceptions) gained more migrants than before.

A historic demographic low point

Among the many consequences the COVID-19 pandemic has inflicted on the nation, its impact on the nation’s demographic stagnation is likely to be consequential. The new census estimates make plain that as a result of more deaths, fewer births, and a recent low in immigration, America has achieved something close to zero growth in the 2020-21 period. This trend has affected most states, and will lead to sharp changes in how many Americans make decisions about childbearing as well as where and how they live.

While it is true that the rise in pandemic-period deaths—especially among the older population—contributed much to this slow growth, declines in fertility and immigration also added a great deal. Because the latter demographic components contribute most to any future rise in the nation’s youth and labor-force-age population, it is vital that we examine public policies that can overcome barriers to the bearing and raising of children and, probably most important, stimulate immigration in ways that will reinvigorate the nation’s population growth.

Even before the onset of the pandemic, Census Bureau projections foresaw the onset of slower growth, increased aging, and continued stagnation of our labor force. Among the many ways that are needed to recover from the pandemic, a focus on reactivating the nation’s population growth should be given high priority.

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