India’s Total Fertility Rate (TFR), which represents the average number of children a woman is expected to have during her lifetime, remained unchanged at 2.0 in 2021, mirroring the figure from the previous year, according to the latest Sample Registration System (SRS) report released by the Registrar General of India (RGI) on May 7.
The findings of the report show significant demographic patterns across Indian states and reveal trends such as the aging of the population and delays in the average age of marriage. Notably, Bihar stood out for having the highest fertility rate in the country at 3.0, while the national capital Delhi and the state of West Bengal reported the lowest fertility rates, both standing at 1.4.
The SRS report also noted a significant demographic shift over the past five decades. The share of India’s population within the 0-14 age bracket has steadily declined from 41.2% in 1971 to 24.8% in 2021. Conversely, the proportion of the working-age population, defined as those between 15 to 59 years, has grown markedly during the same period. “Proportion of the economically active population between 15-59 years has increased from 53.4% to 66.2% during the same period,” the report stated.
India’s elderly population has also seen a notable increase. The share of the population aged 65 and above rose from 5.3% to 5.9%, and those aged 60 and above grew from 6% to 9% over the same time frame. These changes suggest the country is undergoing a demographic transition marked by an aging population and a shrinking youth cohort.
In this context, Kerala emerged as the state with the highest proportion of elderly people. According to the report, 14.4% of Kerala’s population is aged 60 and above. Tamil Nadu followed with 12.9%, and Himachal Pradesh with 12.3%. On the opposite end of the spectrum, Bihar had the smallest proportion of elderly citizens, with only 6.9% of its population being aged 60 or more. Assam and Delhi were also at the lower end, with 7% and 7.1% respectively in this age group.
In terms of social changes, the report documented a considerable increase in the average age at which women are getting married. It found that the mean age at effective marriage for females has gone up from 19.3 years in 1990 to 22.5 years in 2021. This shift suggests improvements in women’s education, employment opportunities, and growing awareness about reproductive health and family planning.
With the national census typically conducted every ten years, the SRS plays a vital role in filling the information gap in the interim. It stands as the largest demographic survey in India and is tasked with providing annual estimates of fertility and mortality statistics at both state and national levels. For this particular edition of the survey, data was collected from 8,842 sample units spread across all Indian states, encompassing approximately 84 lakh people.
While presenting the interim budget for 2024, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman had announced the establishment of a high-level committee to explore the challenges associated with “fast population growth and demographic changes.” This statement seemed to imply that the country was still experiencing a rapid rise in population. However, the data from the SRS paints a more nuanced picture, indicating that the population growth may not be as steep as previously assumed. As the Census—delayed since 2021—has not yet been conducted (the last one being in 2011), a fuller understanding of these trends is still awaited.
The report also highlights that India has achieved replacement-level fertility, a crucial demographic milestone where a population exactly replaces itself from one generation to the next. Replacement-level TFR is usually pegged at 2.1. This rate has now been reached or even fallen below in numerous states.
“It is noteworthy that the replacement level TFR, viz. 2.1, has been attained at the national level, along with Delhi 1.4, West Bengal 1.4, Tamil Nadu 1.5, Andhra Pradesh 1.5, Jammu and Kashmir 1.5, Kerala 1.5, Maharashtra 1.5, Punjab 1.5, Himachal Pradesh 1.6, Telangana 1.6, Karnataka 1.6, Odisha 1.8, Uttarakhand 1.8, Gujarat 2.0, Haryana 2.0 and Assam 2.1,” the report stated.
The implications of these findings are multifold. On the one hand, a lower TFR aligns with aspirations for a smaller and more manageable population, which can reduce stress on resources and infrastructure. On the other hand, continued declines in fertility—especially below the replacement level—can pose long-term challenges, such as labor shortages and increasing dependency ratios due to a growing elderly population.
States like Bihar, with a TFR still significantly above replacement level, may need to focus on educational and reproductive health initiatives, while others with below-replacement rates may eventually confront issues tied to workforce shrinkage and elderly care.
Furthermore, the variations in elderly population proportions across states point to uneven aging processes in the country. States like Kerala and Tamil Nadu, with larger elderly populations, may face increased demand for healthcare services, age-friendly infrastructure, and social security programs. In contrast, states like Bihar and Assam, which still have a relatively young demographic, might focus more on education, job creation, and economic development.
Meanwhile, the rising mean age at marriage for females highlights evolving social norms and potentially positive trends in gender equality. Delaying marriage often correlates with better health outcomes for both mothers and children, as well as greater female participation in higher education and the labor market.
In conclusion, the latest SRS data underscores that India’s population dynamics are undergoing a significant transformation. While the overall fertility rate remains stable, the country is seeing a demographic shift characterized by declining youth populations, growing working-age groups, and an expanding elderly segment. These findings suggest that population-related policy planning will need to be tailored to the unique challenges and opportunities facing each state. The upcoming national census, whenever it occurs, will be critical in providing a complete and updated picture of these ongoing changes.