The world’s population growth will slow significantly by the year 2100, with notable demographic shifts across various regions and countries, according to a Pew Research Center analysis of the UN’s World Population Prospects.
As the United Nations prepares to observe World Population Day on July 11, the focus turns to the changing global demographics expected in the coming decades. According to the latest projections from Pew Research Center, which analyzed the United Nation’s World Population Prospects, the world population is poised for major changes by the end of the century.
Global population, which more than tripled over the past 75 years, is now expected to increase by only 1.9 billion more people by 2100, rising from 8.2 billion in 2023 to 10.2 billion. The population is projected to reach a peak of 10.3 billion in 2084, before declining slightly as the century concludes.
India, China, and the United States—the three most populous countries as of 2025—are anticipated to experience markedly different demographic trajectories. India’s population is expected to grow until it peaks at 1.7 billion in 2061, followed by a gradual decrease to 1.5 billion by 2100. Meanwhile, China’s population has already started its decline, with projections seeing it fall to around 633 million by 2100. In contrast, the United States is projected to see steady population growth, reaching 421 million by the same year.
A handful of countries will drive over 60% of global population growth by 2100. These include the Democratic Republic of Congo, Ethiopia, Nigeria, Pakistan, and Tanzania. Currently, only Nigeria and Ethiopia rank among the ten most populous nations, but projections indicate that by 2100, the Democratic Republic of Congo and Tanzania will join those ranks.
The United States is the only country among the top ten contributors to population growth that is outside Africa and Asia. However, despite this growth, the U.S. is projected to drop from the third to the sixth most populous country globally by 2100.
Another significant trend is the aging of the global population. The median age is expected to rise from 31 today to 42 by 2100. The number of people aged 65 and older is projected to more than double, reaching 2.4 billion by 2100, which would consequently increase their share of the global demographic from 10% to 24%.
This demographic shift will result in a balance between those under 25 and those aged 65 and older by 2100, a stark contrast to the current scenario where those under 25 outnumber older adults roughly four-to-one. The decrease in the number of people under 25, projected to fall from 3.3 billion today to 2.9 billion by 2100, contributes to this change.
Africa remains distinctive as the youngest region worldwide, with a median age of just 19. While this figure is expected to rise to 35 by 2100, Africa is expected to stay the most youthful region. Latin America and the Caribbean have a significantly higher median age of 32, followed by Europe’s median age of 43, qualifying it as the world’s oldest region.
In comparison, the median age in the United States is 39, placing it among the oldest third of countries globally, yet still slightly younger than many high-income countries in Europe and East Asia.
These anticipated shifts in population numbers and dynamics underscore the profound changes the world may experience in terms of demographics and the accompanying social and economic impacts.
Source: Original article
