In a major escalation, Israel launched a series of overnight air strikes on Iran, targeting what Israeli officials identified as “military targets.” The strikes were widely expected as a response to Iran’s recent missile attack on Israel, which marked a significant turn in the two nations’ long-standing hostilities.
Why Israel Acted Now
The decision to strike came in response to an Iranian missile assault on October 1, during which over 180 missiles were launched at Israel. Although most of these were intercepted by Israel’s air defense system with support from allied forces, a few managed to hit various sites, including air bases. Tragically, one Palestinian civilian was killed by falling missile debris. Israel had vowed retaliation for this assault, but had not specified a timeline, leaving speculation about whether their response would be immediate or involve a broader strategy.
On Saturday morning, Israel targeted specific sites related to missile production, launch facilities, and other air capabilities, though further details about the specific assets hit remain unclear.
The October 1 Attack by Iran
Iran had launched its October 1 missile strike as retaliation for what it saw as aggressive acts by Israel. This included the killings of key figures within Hezbollah and Hamas, Iranian-supported groups that oppose Israel, as well as a high-ranking Iranian military official. On September 27, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and Brigadier General Abbas Nilforoushan were killed in an Israeli airstrike in Beirut, Lebanon. Not long after, Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh was killed in a compound explosion in Tehran, which Iran attributed to Israeli actions, though Israel neither confirmed nor denied involvement.
Iran’s recent attack on Israel marked only its second direct strike. Previously, Iran had launched an assault involving about 300 drones and missiles in response to an Israeli airstrike on April 1 targeting an Iranian consulate in Damascus, Syria. That earlier strike killed 13 people, including senior members of Iran’s Quds Force, part of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Iran condemned this as a breach of its sovereignty, signaling that hostilities had reached a new level.
In retaliation for this April strike, Israel struck sites in Iran’s Isfahan region three weeks later. U.S. officials confirmed that Israel’s drones had targeted radar installations associated with Iran’s Russian S-300 air defense missile system, which Israel considers a significant threat to its aircraft. This limited strike was viewed as a warning of Israel’s capacity to reach Iranian military infrastructure.
Why the Two Nations Are Enemies
Iran and Israel were once allies, but relations deteriorated after Iran’s 1979 Islamic Revolution. Since then, the Iranian regime has been vocal in its opposition to Israel’s existence, with Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei calling Israel a “cancerous tumor” that should be “uprooted and destroyed.” Israel views this rhetoric as a threat to its security, as well as Iran’s funding and arming of militant groups opposed to Israel, such as Hezbollah and Hamas. The tension has only intensified over the years, leading to a covert “shadow war” where each side has attacked the other’s assets without acknowledging responsibility.
This underlying conflict gained further traction after October last year, when Hamas initiated an assault on Israeli communities, leading to further tensions in Gaza. Israel perceives Iran as its primary threat in the region, largely due to Tehran’s support for proxy forces like Hezbollah and Hamas, as well as Iran’s suspected ambition to develop nuclear capabilities.
Nuclear Ambitions and Military Power
Iran’s nuclear intentions have been a long-standing concern for Israel and Western nations. Though Iran denies any intent to develop nuclear weapons, Western officials remain wary, especially since Iran has significantly advanced its nuclear technology. In May, the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) stated that Iran could be only weeks away from having enough enriched uranium for a nuclear weapon. However, experts point out that further steps would still be necessary for Iran to produce a usable nuclear bomb, including creating the necessary warhead.
Unlike Iran, Israel is believed to have a nuclear arsenal, though it follows a policy of ambiguity and has neither confirmed nor denied having such weapons. Furthermore, Israel has one of the world’s most advanced air forces, comprising a range of aircraft, including F-15s, F-16s, and the sophisticated F-35 stealth fighters. Israel’s military expertise extends to executing missions deep within hostile regions, and the country’s Defense Forces are prepared to navigate the challenging distances between Israel and Iran.
Iran, on the other hand, has focused on developing its missile and drone capabilities, with an extensive inventory of drones and rockets. These capabilities have also been extended to allied groups, including the Houthis in Yemen and Hezbollah in Lebanon. Iran’s air defenses have received upgrades, including Russian-made S-300 missile systems, and it has recently procured Su-35 fighter jets from Russia.
Despite its extensive conventional arsenal, Iran remains subject to monitoring under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), which it signed, committing to restrict its nuclear capabilities for peaceful purposes. In 2015, a deal was reached under which Iran agreed to limitations on its nuclear activities in return for sanctions relief. However, the deal collapsed after the U.S. withdrew in 2018, and Iran subsequently resumed nuclear activities that Western nations see as a potential path toward weapons development.
Iran’s Network of Allies and Proxy Forces
Iran has established an extensive network of allies in the Middle East, which it calls the “axis of resistance.” This alliance includes Syria, where Iran and Russia have backed President Bashar al-Assad throughout the Syrian civil war. The Iran-Russia partnership has grown considerably, with both nations supporting each other through shared military and strategic resources. Iran has supplied Russia with Shahed drones, and recent reports suggest Iran may have also provided ballistic missiles, though Iran denies these allegations.
Among the various armed groups backed by Iran, Hezbollah in Lebanon remains the most formidable. Since conflict erupted between Israel and Hamas, Hezbollah has exchanged almost daily fire with Israeli forces along the Lebanon-Israel border, forcing many residents to flee. Iran’s support extends to several Shiite militias in Iraq, which have launched attacks on U.S. bases across the region. The U.S. has responded forcefully, especially following incidents where American soldiers were killed.
In Yemen, Iran has backed the Houthi movement, which controls significant portions of the country. The Houthis have also targeted Israeli assets, including commercial shipping, leading the U.S. and UK to strike Houthi targets. Additionally, Iran supports Palestinian factions, including Hamas, though it denies any direct role in the October 7 Hamas assault on Israel last year.
Continuing Conflict
As tensions between Israel and Iran reach new heights, the region remains on edge, with fears that this latest escalation may trigger broader hostilities. The interplay of alliances and military actions creates a precarious situation in the Middle East, where both sides remain firm in their respective ideologies and strategic goals. The continuing power struggle between these two adversaries underscores the enduring complexities of Middle Eastern geopolitics.