A new map illustrates the expected changes in population levels across European nations from now until the year 2100. The data is derived from the UN World Population Prospects 2024, specifically using the medium variant estimates.
Population Trends in Europe
For several decades, birth rates across Europe have been below the replacement rate required to maintain stable population levels. This trend is expected to continue and intensify in the coming years. Consequently, most European nations are projected to see a decline in population by the end of the century.
The most populous nations on the continent are expected to experience significant shifts. Germany is projected to lose 13.8 million people, Poland will see a decrease of 18.8 million, and Italy is expected to shrink by 23.8 million.
Eastern Europe has been experiencing population declines since the 1990s, and this pattern is anticipated to accelerate further throughout the century. Russia and Ukraine combined are expected to see their populations drop by 40 million people by 2100.
Despite these overall trends, migration—both within Europe and from outside the continent—could help mitigate population loss in some countries. Nations such as the United Kingdom and France are expected to grow rather than shrink due to migration. The UK’s population is projected to increase by 4.8 million, while France is expected to see a growth of 1.8 million.
However, this trend of population growth is expected to be limited to only a few countries. According to the UN’s estimates, just seven European nations will have a larger population in 2100 compared to 2025.
It is essential to note that these are estimates, and projections can differ based on the data source. While the UN suggests a general decline across most of Europe, Eurostat—the official statistical office of the European Union—has a slightly more optimistic outlook. Eurostat’s projections from 2022 indicate that more European countries will experience population growth than the UN anticipates.
Economic and Social Implications for Europe
A declining population presents significant challenges for economies across Europe. Economic systems are not designed to accommodate shrinking populations. A decrease in population directly translates to reduced consumer demand, which is a vital driver of economic growth.
Additionally, a smaller population results in a reduced tax base, which directly impacts the funding of Europe’s extensive social security programs. Many European nations are known for their robust social welfare systems, which could face financial strain if fewer people contribute to tax revenues.
For decades, migration from Asia and the Middle East has played a crucial role in sustaining population growth across Europe. However, the impact of international migration as a population booster is expected to diminish sooner than many anticipate.
Eurostat’s projections suggest that Europe’s population will peak in 2026. After that point, overall population levels are expected to decline, marking a significant demographic shift for the continent.