The Odds for the presidency: Donald Trump’s Odds Get a Boost

The Odds for the presidency: Donald Trump’s Odds Get a Boost

Joe Biden was expected to give Donald Trump a run for his money in the 2020 US Elections, but unexpected recent events could be turning the tables on the two-term vice president and the Democratic party’s hope to paint the White House blue: the coronavirus pandemic and New York governor Andrew Cuomo’s rising stock.

Donald Trump is installed as the short-odds-on favourite to win the 2020 US Elections, which are slated for Tuesday, November 3. Trump is the -110 favourite to win the keys to the White House for a second (and last) term, while Biden, who is Trump’s most prominent threat to the presidency according to most political analysts, is tipped at +125. Senator Bernie Sanders, meanwhile, is the longshot of the triplet at far flung +2500 odds in political betting markets.

By the odds for the presidency, one can infer Trump’s probability of winning is higher than Biden’s. This notion is further underscored by the president’s approval rating, which has experienced a renaissance of late (reaching nearly 50%) as he navigates the nation through the coronavirus pandemic that is having a deadly impact across the country.

In a recent interview with ‘Fox & Friends,’ Trump reiterated his hope that he’s ‘going to win.’ Even referencing the aforementioned polls that are in his favour, when he said, “I’ve gotten great marks also. We want to always make sure we have a great president; we have somebody that’s capable.”

Senator Sanders’ campaign took a big hit after Super Tuesday propelled Biden towards a majority in national delegates. What prompted many political obituaries on Sanders’ campaign to surface and his odds in political betting markets to plummet. But the 78-year-old senator isn’t going away quietly. He’s adamant about continuing the fight.

Biden, meanwhile, is leading the race for the party nomination and appears to have it practically in the bag. He has 1,174 delegates to Sanders’ 862 delegates. A total of 1,991 delegates are needed in order to become the Democratic party’s standard-bearer.

The novel coronavirus outbreak forced four primaries that were scheduled for April 4 – Alaska, Wyoming, Hawaii and Louisiana – to be pushed back into June at the earliest. That said Wisconsin is the lone primary election on the schedule for April 7, which is still planning on going ahead amid the deadly coronavirus pandemic.

Sanders reportedly hopes to have another debate with Biden in April, although none are confirmed or scheduled to date. Moreover, Biden doesn’t appear keen to have any more debates. In his words, “I haven’t thought about any more debates. I think we’ve had enough debates. I think we should get on with this,” he said.

Biden’s sense of urgency may be in part due to the global pandemic that has turned electioneering on its head, but there’s an even stronger case against dragging the Democratic primary process out because it could weaken the party’s position entirely come November. It could weaken Biden’s position, no less.

Biden has more than a 300 delegate edge over Sanders but the 77-year-old’s momentum appears to be waning in recent weeks, within the party and the broad spectrum of the elections. Ever since Super Tuesday on March 17, Biden is steadily fading in the national conversation.

Sanders, who’s a dab hand at virtual campaigning, is managing to stay relevant with his supporters. Hosting daily live streams from his home in Vermont, including fireside chats and virtual rallies and phonebanks, the 78-year-old is pioneering virtual campaigning; unlike Biden, who is struggling to strike an audible chord. After a few unsuccessful virtual events, Biden’s team seems content with infrequent TV appearances and interviews that are mostly controlled and remote.

This is part of the virtual town hall the Biden campaign wouldn’t post; Garbled/cut out audio, blank screens, randomly going live to unsuspecting participants

What nobody could have anticipated is the Democratic landscape turning upside down with the skyrocketing popularity of New York governor Andrew Cuomo against a backdrop of the ‘war’ on coronavirus. How the DNC reconciles its choice of Biden and Sanders now in light of Cuomo’s appeal remains to be seen.

The 62-year-old governor isn’t officially in the race nor does he intend to run in the 2020 Elections. Politics couldn’t be further from the governor’s mind, according to Monday’s briefing with the press. “There is no politics, there is no red and blue, We are red, white and blue!. So, let’s get over it and lead by example,” he said.

NY Gov. Andrew Cuomo on Pres. Trump: “I am not engaging the president in politics. My only goal is to engage the president in partnership…I’m not going to get into a political dispute with the president.”

Yet, in spite of claim to the contrary, sportsbooks roll out odds for Cuomo. He is now the second best bet to win the Democratic nomination at +1000, ahead of Sanders but behind Biden. (When Cuomo isn’t officially even in the race that’s telling). Cuomo is also the third best bet after Trump and Biden in the race for the presidency, albeit at +2000.

When Trump was asked about a hypothetical Cuomo bid, he seemed to relish the idea, even going so far as saying he would be a better candidate than ‘Sleepy Joe,’ who Trump doesn’t think is ‘capable’ of being president.

Seemingly overnight, Cuomo’s rising star steals the spotlight and encourages re-evaluating the measure of Biden and Sanders’ candidacy for the 2020 US Elections. A right spanner in the works for the Democratic party but potentially an advantage for Trump, whose odds received a boost recently.

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