Weather across the U.S. this past year has been one for the record books, from an historic drought in California to extreme snow in New England region. Now, as October nears its end, TIME looked at what the forecasts show for the coming winter. The forecast brings both welcome and unwelcome news. New Englanders and Mid-Atlantic residents, for instance, should be happy that they’ll avoid some of the icy cold that froze the region last winter. Californians are likely to receive heavy rain but not enough to resolve the state’s drought.
Across the country, El Niño is driving much of this year’s weather patterns. The climate phenomenon raises temperatures across the globe and changes the way air circulates. In the U.S., this typically means heavy rain in the south and lower temperatures across much of the country.